U.S. consumers are forecast to spend $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from last year, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Black Friday is projected to grow 9.2% to $12.9 billion, faster than Cyber Monday’s 6.2%, while Cyber Monday is set to become the first $15 billion online shopping day.
Key Takeaways
- Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is forecast to generate $47.5 billion online, up 7.4% and equal to 17.3% of the season.
- Cyber Monday is projected at $15.1 billion, which would make it the first single day of U.S. online shopping above $15 billion.
- Buy now, pay later is forecast to drive $21.3 billion in online spending in November and December, up 6.6%.
- Online grocery is forecast to grow 10.3% to $26.1 billion, the fastest pace among the major categories reported.
- Online spending in October is projected at $95.8 billion, up 8% year over year, ahead of the official season.
The Online Holiday Forecast Covers November 1 Through December 31
The online holiday spending forecast from Adobe Digital Insights measures U.S. e-commerce from November 1 through December 31, 2026. The $275.1 billion projection compares with $257.78 billion spent online during the same period last year. Adobe Digital Insights expects e-commerce to account for about $1 of every $4 spent this holiday season.
The online projection sits inside a larger retail picture. The National Retail Federation forecasts total November and December retail sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2%, a figure that covers both stores and online channels. Consumer surveys point the same direction, with shoppers reporting average holiday budgets of $1,654 per shopper this season. Online spending is forecast to grow faster than overall retail, which suggests the channel will keep gaining share.
Black Friday Is Closing the Gap With Cyber Monday
The online holiday spending forecast shows a shift in how the busiest shopping days compare. Black Friday is projected to grow 9.2% to $12.9 billion, while Cyber Monday is forecast to grow 6.2% to $15.1 billion. Cyber Monday remains the larger day, but Black Friday is growing faster.
The gap has narrowed over time. Based on Adobe’s data, Black Friday online sales were worth 81% of Cyber Monday’s in 2024. On the 2026 forecast, that ratio rises to 85%. Thanksgiving Day is also expected to contribute, with online sales forecast at $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
For retailers and online sellers, the trend suggests that holiday demand is spreading earlier across the long weekend. Promotions timed only for Cyber Monday may miss a growing share of shoppers who buy on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Cyber Week Concentrates 17.3% of the Season in Five Days
Cyber Week, running from Thanksgiving on November 26 through Cyber Monday on November 30, is forecast to bring in $47.5 billion online, up 7.4%. That equals 17.3% of the full November and December season, packed into five days.
The concentration has practical effects for businesses that sell online. Inventory, fulfillment capacity and customer service all face their heaviest load in a single week. Adobe Digital Insights also expects discounts of up to 30% off list price during Cyber Week, which puts pressure on margins for sellers competing on price.
Buy Now, Pay Later Volume Signals How Consumers Are Stretching Budgets
Buy now, pay later is forecast to drive $21.3 billion in online holiday spending, up 6.6% year over year. Cyber Monday is expected to produce $1.09 billion in BNPL spending, and Black Friday $807 million. About 82% of BNPL spending is expected to come through mobile devices.
The figures offer a read on household finances heading into the holidays. Consumers using installment payments are spreading the cost of purchases into the following months. For businesses, steady BNPL growth suggests that flexible payment options remain part of how many shoppers manage holiday budgets.
Category Growth Favors Everyday Purchases
The online holiday spending forecast shows faster growth in everyday categories than in traditional big-ticket gifts. Online grocery is projected at $26.1 billion, up 10.3%. Toys are forecast at $9.6 billion, up 9.6%, and cosmetics at $9.2 billion, up 9.5%.
The two largest categories are growing more slowly. Electronics is forecast at $63.3 billion, up 5.9%, and apparel at $51.3 billion, up 4.7%. Together, the data points to shoppers using holiday deals to stock up on essentials alongside traditional gift buying.
Mobile and Early Spending Shape the Season
Mobile devices are forecast to account for 57.4% of online holiday spending. Spending also started early, with October online sales projected at $95.8 billion, up 8% year over year. For online sellers, a mobile-first checkout and early promotions are becoming central to capturing holiday demand.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forecast figures are projections and may differ from actual results. Readers should consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
FAQs
How Much Will Americans Spend Online This Holiday Season?
Adobe Digital Insights forecasts $275.1 billion in U.S. online spending from November 1 to December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from last year.
How Much Is Cyber Monday 2026 Expected to Bring In?
Cyber Monday, November 30, 2026, is forecast to generate $15.1 billion in online sales, up 6.2%. It would be the first single U.S. online shopping day above $15 billion.
Is Black Friday Growing Faster Than Cyber Monday?
Yes. Black Friday online sales are forecast to grow 9.2% to $12.9 billion, compared with 6.2% growth for Cyber Monday.
How Much Will Shoppers Spend Using Buy Now, Pay Later?
Buy now, pay later is forecast to drive $21.3 billion in online spending in November and December 2026, up 6.6% year over year.
When Is Cyber Week 2026?
Cyber Week runs from Thanksgiving on November 26 through Cyber Monday on November 30, 2026. It is forecast to generate $47.5 billion online.
