The Census Bureau releases October 2026 retail sales on November 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last monthly read before Thanksgiving shopping begins. September’s 0.8% increase looked strong, but gasoline stations accounted for about seven-tenths of the dollar gain. Sales excluding gasoline stations rose only 0.2%.
Key Takeaways
- September 2026 retail and food services sales were $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025, according to the Census Bureau.
- Gasoline station sales rose 6.4% in September, accounting for about $4.1 billion of the $5.7 billion monthly increase.
- Sales excluding gasoline stations rose 0.2% in September and 4.5% from a year earlier.
- Census revised monthly retail estimates on September 28, 2026, lowering sales levels, so dollar totals published before and after that date can’t be compared directly.
- NRF’s $1.013 trillion holiday forecast excludes gas stations, auto dealers and restaurants, the categories that drove much of September’s headline growth.
- November retail sales follow on December 16, 2026.
September’s Headline Gain Rested on Gasoline
The Census Bureau’s September report showed retail and food services sales of $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025. Sales for July through September were up 5.5% from the same period a year earlier, and August’s monthly gain was revised up to 1.3% from 1.1%.
Gasoline was the main driver. Sales at gasoline stations rose 6.4% from August and 28.1% from a year earlier. By the Census Bureau’s dollar figures, gas station sales rose about $4.1 billion in September, while total sales rose about $5.7 billion. That puts roughly seven-tenths of the monthly increase at the pump.
Outside gasoline, the picture was much flatter. Census reported that sales excluding gasoline stations rose 0.2% in September, as did sales excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline stations. The bureau notes that the 90% confidence interval for the latter change includes zero, so the gain isn’t statistically distinguishable from no change. Economists’ narrower measure, which also strips out building materials and food services, rose 0.1%, according to Reuters’ calculation from Census data.
Where Shoppers Spent Outside the Pump
Category detail in the September report shows a mixed month for retailers. Food services and drinking places rose 1.1% from August and 7.0% from a year earlier. Nonstore retailers rose 0.3% on the month and 8.2% on the year, and electronics and appliance stores rose 0.6%. General merchandise stores slipped 0.1%, clothing stores were flat, and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores fell 0.5%.
Year-over-year growth also narrows once gasoline is removed. Sales excluding gasoline stations were up 4.5% from September 2025, against 6.3% for the headline. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so much of that nominal growth reflects higher prices rather than more goods sold.
Why the Revision Matters for Reading the Numbers
Census revised its monthly retail estimates on September 28, 2026, based on historical corrections and results from the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. The revision lowered sales levels. As a result, dollar totals published before late September, including the first August estimate, sit on a different base from current figures. Percent changes within the revised series are the reliable comparison.
What the November 17 Report Shows for the Holiday Forecast
The October report is the last full month of data before the National Retail Federation’s holiday season begins. NRF forecasts November and December retail sales will grow 4.2% over 2025 to $1.013 trillion, after 3.1% growth to $972 billion in 2025. NRF builds that forecast from Census data but excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
That definition makes the core categories more relevant to the holiday outlook than the headline figure. September’s strongest gains came from gasoline and restaurants, both outside NRF’s measure. The categories inside it, including general merchandise, clothing and nonstore retailers, ranged from flat to modest on the month.
Gasoline will shape October’s headline as well. AAA’s national average for regular gas was $4.36 a month before November 11, when it stood at $3.94, so pump prices moved lower through the period the October report covers. Separating the gasoline line from everything else remains the clearest way to read what households spent on goods heading into the holidays.
Readers of the October report should also note that BLS didn’t publish a 12-month inflation rate for October 2026, because it couldn’t collect October 2025 price data during that year’s lapse in appropriations. Adjusting October retail growth for inflation on a year-over-year basis will therefore be less straightforward than usual.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
FAQs
When is the October 2026 retail sales report released?
The Census Bureau releases advance retail sales for October 2026 on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. November data follows on December 16, 2026.
How much did retail sales rise in September 2026?
Retail and food services sales rose 0.8% in September 2026 to $745.0 billion, and were up 6.3% from September 2025, according to the Census Bureau.
Why did gasoline matter so much in September’s retail sales?
Gasoline station sales rose 6.4% in September, accounting for about $4.1 billion of the $5.7 billion monthly increase. Sales excluding gasoline stations rose only 0.2%.
Does NRF’s holiday forecast include gas station sales?
No. NRF’s holiday forecast uses Census retail data but excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, measuring sales from November 1 through December 31.
Why can’t dollar totals from before September 28, 2026, be compared to current figures?
Census revised monthly retail estimates on September 28, 2026, using historical corrections and annual survey results. The revision lowered sales levels, so earlier published totals use a different base.
