Donald Trump — Last week, Donald Trump made history by becoming the first president, current or former, to be charged.
The Manhattan grand jury made their decision after lengthy deliberation.
This is only one of several high-profile Trump concerns.
A surprising rally
A flood of charges levied against Donald Trump would seem to endanger his political ambitions.
Yet, many Republican leaders have refrained from attacking him.
They have instead attacked Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who filed the accusations against Trump.
Meanwhile, betting markets continue to favor Donald Trump as the GOP nominee in 2024.
The indictment shifted the world on its axis, ushering in an unprecedented situation characterized by shifting political realities.
Three elements are most likely to account for Donald Trump’s popularity:
- Despite the looming indictment, Trump’s advantage in the GOP primary for 2024 has grown in the preceding month.
- Republicans believe the probes are politically motivated.
- Most Trump supporters are unconcerned about his chances in November.
Likewise, Fox News, Monmouth University, and Quinnipiac University polls show that Donald Trump’s chances in the Republican primary are improving.
Trump held a double-digit lead in polls in March.
Additionally, the former president gained an advantage over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has yet to begin his campaign.
Trump had a 12-point advantage in February.
The Quinnipiac poll findings were released last week.
Just 18% of registered Republican voters believed Trump’s statements about a hush money scam in New York were real.
58% of individuals believed they weren’t.
The indictment may trigger a paradigm change, but it may not be as significant as it looks.
According to the Quinnipiac poll, the majority of Republicans do not feel Alvin Bragg is objective.
Almost every Republican (93%) and most of the voters (63%), believed his prosecution was politically motivated.
Republicans look to be on Trump’s side when it comes to any indictment.
According to a recent Marist College poll, respondents whether the many Trump investigations were warranted or a “witch hunt.”
The 2020 elections
Donald Trump has also been linked to the Capitol Riot in addition to the Manhattan case.
Most Republicans believe his efforts to overturn the 2020 election outcome were legal.
Polls show that the great majority of Republicans believe President Trump’s actions were proper.
The majority of Republicans believed Joe Biden won only due to voter fraud.
The bigger picture
Republicans’ claim that the lawsuits are politically motivated is merely one aspect of the problem.
Another factor to examine is how Republicans perceive Donald Trump in relation to the broader population.
Republicans believe he is innocent, but his legal issues will be a hindrance in the general election because people believe the investigations are fair.
According to polls, ideological alignment is more crucial than electability for Republican primary candidates.
According to a CNN poll, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents chose attacking Biden over policy agreement by a 59% to 41% margin.
Trump supporters were split, with 61% feeling that issue agreement should take precedence above electability and 39% disagreeing.
The findings show a major shift from the Democratic primary in 2020.
By March 2020, 73% of Biden supporters had convinced voters to choose electability above issue agreement.
To put it another way, Biden’s presentation to Democrats outperformed Trump’s argument to Republicans.
A new hope
Despite the fact that most Republicans feel other potential candidates have a greater chance of unseating Biden, Trump remains the frontrunner.
According to a February Marist poll, 54% of Republicans believe that someone other than Trump would help the GOP recover the White House in 2024.
Republican voters in 2023, on the other hand, may not have made a mistake.
Despite the projected electability issues, Donald Trump looks to be gaining a general election poll edge against Joe Biden in the 2024 cycle earlier than he did in the 2020 cycle.
But, according to the same research, DeSantis outperforms Trump vs. Biden, which is consistent with how the majority of Republicans feel.